Scenarios of Collapse, Tyranny and War

If Britain stopped being safe, where would the British go, and who would let them in?

British law and politics treat the United Kingdom as a country people flee to, never from. Asylum systems abroad presume British claims are unfounded. No foreign state keeps a lifeboat for 69 million Britons.

Indefinite Leave? asks what happens if that assumption fails.

The book tests twenty-two scenarios, from emergency powers that are introduced and never switched off, through bank runs, the end of cash, digital ID and civil conflict, to the break-up of the Union, foreign occupation, conscription and nuclear attack. Each one opens with the Andrews family of Gloucestershire as they meet a possible future, then sets the story against current law, real precedents and the practical obstacles facing any Briton who tried to leave.

For each scenario, the questions are: How could it begin, and what could stop it? When does concern become danger, and when does staying become riskier than leaving?

Could Britons legally claim protection abroad, and which countries would actually take them?

How likely is it over the next twenty-five years?

Drawing on the Refugee Convention, European and UK law, and the experience of Hong Kong, Iran, Afghanistan, East Germany, Ukraine and the Channel Islands under occupation, the book ends with a likelihood matrix for every scenario, a country-by-country guide to the routes open to British citizens, and a calm chapter on preparing without panic.

The scenarios are not forecasts, and most are unlikely. The point is to show how much of the security we associate with being British rests on institutions, laws and international arrangements that most of us never notice, and why they are worth keeping in good repair.